Lear Capital on the Mystery Gold Swap
Today, the Financial News is at it again, having us believe that a mystery gold swap is responsible for a sell-off in the gold market.Characterizing the swap as a sale, the event is said to foretell, perhaps, an impending widespread sell-off in the gold market.
First, this is old news that hit the headlines a week ago and was said to be responsible for the sell-off last week.Now, I guess, we didn't hear right the first time as gold took the news, sold off a bit, then firmly rebounded, so they had to tell us again.
Just to recap what happened, a central bank or banks have gone to the BIS, (Bank for International Settlements) and borrowed currencies.380 tonnes of gold were used to secure the loan.
What is the BIS? According to the BIS official site, "The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international organisation which fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks."
Now that we know what the BIS is, we know that the dealing was with at least one other central bank, perhaps more than one or as one speculated, the IMF.With numerous European countries in debt trouble, is it any wonder someone put the squeeze on to use gold reserves to pay debt.If you have gold in your reserves, great!Sell some!I want my money!
Certainly, an outright sale of the gold was contemplated, but, if you expected the price of gold to rise, selling now precludes you from realizing future profits.Swapping, however, can preserve your right to take advantage of a price increase down the road.However, no one seems to know or be saying what the exact terms of the deal were.
Also, if you sell, it is often lost in reports that someone had to be on the other end of the deal as a buyer, and the deal could be characterized solely as a sale with the entire buy-side of the transaction ignored.Headlines reading, "Somebody Sold Their Gold Reserves."This means whatever gold reserves the "Swapper" had left, could go down in value.That's a bad thing when you are already deep in debt, relying on gold, in part, to bail you out.
This would also explain why the "Swapper" wanted to keep the deal quiet and anonymous.With respect to the gold market, gold spot prices, or the gold charts, it appears this was supposed to be a non-event.Instead, it was characterized as a sale or bailout of a central bank.
In one report, well known analyst Jim Sinclair says, "The many reports that characterise the large IMF gold swap as a sale ofgold into the markets do not understand the difference between a swap and alease."In this case, Jim suggests the IMF was the counterparty, then likens a lease to a sale.
As it is, this deal has been characterized as a sale - twice now!And the gold spot price did go down along with the value of any remaining gold reserves in the "Swapper's Account/s."
However, it does not end there.Maybe I am wrong, and I am sure someone will be happy to inform me of such, but I look at a swap like I look at borrowing money from my broker using stock as collateral for my loan.My interest rate is fixed on the amount I borrow and as long as the stock I buy keeps rising, I am in good shape.But, what happens when the the shares I used to secure the loan or the shares I bought, go down in value?You got it - Margin Call!
I believe if gold prices drop significantly, the "Swapper" in this case may be required to make whole the collateral or risk losing it.
Maybe I am way off, but you have to ask, "why the mystery?"I suspect in this case if all the details were disclosed, along with an explanation, it would have been a non-event for gold or maybe a positive as the very thought of being able to use gold for a bailout confirms the very best reason for owning gold in the first place.Protection in time of crisis!
In a world where gold demand at the central bank level seems to be heating up, higher prices are scorned.If a leak here or a leak there can create a quick buying opportunity then a leak is what we will get.They call them leaks because they only contain parts of the story.Any conclusion the parts lead you to is likely the wrong conclusion.And, maybe that's why they are calling it the Mystery Gold Swap.