Lear Capital Examines Gold Price Correction
How soon we forget.Just a few weeks ago the world was on the brink of financial collapse as Greece and a host of its European neighbors danced on the precipice of debt default.In reaction to the uncertainty, Gold prices edged higher as even central banks piled on the buying bandwagon.
Now everything's all better.Do you believe that?
Actually, nothing has changed.Greece's debt did not go away it was just repackaged, although I don't think anyone really knows exactly how.What we do know is we don't hear much about it anymore - out of sight out of mind I guess.
At the same time, earnings reports from Wall Street are coming in to the positive as corporate America is said to be sitting on mountains of cash.
So in one instance we stopped hearing the real bad news of imminent global meltdown and in the other we get some good news.Add the two together and uncertainty is what we become uncertain about.
The result?Gold prices consolidate as those who profited from a rapid price run-up take advantage of a lull in the markets to take some profit off the table.The reality though, is, a global debt crisis a few decades in the making, did not get resolved in the last 8 weeks.
Don't get me wrong.I'm not trying to be Mr. Doom and Gloom, just real.Of course corporate profits are looking stronger, we just came off trillions of dollars worth of stimulus.The Fed is estimated to have provided some $10 trillion while our own deficits reflect another $1.5 trillion or so of money that was pumped into the economy.
Cars, homes, appliance and building products sales, were all stimulated with "printed money."Think about it.An $8000 first time home buyer credit spurred someone to buy $150,000 house.Effectively then, that $8000 produced $150,000 of liquidity or money OTA. (Out of thin air)The same holds for cars as $4000 dollars of stimulus turned into $20,000 of liquidity, or money OTA, when someone bought a new car.
Of course this money is making its way through the economy as the car salesman spends his commission, the auto maker pays factory workers and the banker earns points and interest as people close on their new house.Someone better show a profit but that's just one side of the equation.The other side is more people have taken on more debt, including the almighty taxpayer who some day has to repay the stimulus.
Ben Bernanke told us, he sees more uncertainty ahead.That's because stimulus wears off just like Novocaine.So I maintain that those who don't forget from whence we came just a few weeks ago may recognize an opportunity.Maybe today's low gold prices present just that - opportunity.
As I have come into the habit of reading David Rosenberg's "Breakfast with Dave" I see someone agrees.Here's an excerpt of Dave's commentary on today's golden opportunity.
There is no question that gold’s allure as a safe-haven has taken a bit of a
beating with the more confident tone coming out of European markets, but be
assured that in a global post-bubble credit collapse, skeletons come out of the
closet when you least expect it. The surprises are not over; not by a long
shot. And the gold price will ebb and flow, but it is in a secular bull market and
will retain its natural hedge against recurring concerns surrounding the integrity
of the global financial system.
So where is gold demand headed from here?Dave goes on to say . . .
The investment demand for gold remains quite solid at a time when production
growth is still anemic – the World Gold Council just released data showing that
investors bought 273.8 metric tons of gold via ETF’s in Q2, the second highest
tally on record (and brings net investment in these finds to over 2,000 tons
value at just under $82 billion).
So where are gold prices headed from here?I think any analyst would be hard pressed to say the world is out of the woods with respect to a global debt threat.Maybe the Chinese have the right attitude.Just buy a little gold with every paycheck.Then, sometimes you nail the opportunity to pick some up at a bargain price.I've said it before, diversify . . . diversify . . . diversify.If you do, the biggest risk of owning gold is that you may never need it.