Barron's: Gold: Is Good News Bad News?
Source: Barron's
Author: Johanna Bennett
The decline in gold prices today following the release of a better-than-expected jobs report comes as no great surprise. After all, gold is go-to for investors looking to hedge against slowing economic activity and inflation. So it stands to reason news that U.S. employers added jobs at a robust clip in June and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, would waylay the recent rally in gold prices.
Gold for August delivery, the most actively traded contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, was recently down $10.40 at $1,320 a troy ounce after earlier falling as low as $1,309.40. And the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) fell 0.652% to $127.04.
Gold through yesterday advanced 11% this year as the Federal Reserve said it will keep interest rates low for a considerable time after ending bond purchases, while unrest in Iraq and Ukraine spurred demand for a haven. The metal plunged 28 % in 2013, the most in three decades, as the U.S. economy gained traction.
But will gold prices keep falling? The answer depends on who’s doing the talking.
Many analysts see the precious metal weakening, reasoning that the jobs report has curbed the need for a haven asset. Also, a strong U.S. economy could force the Fed to reconsider its promise and raise rates sooner than expected, hurting gold, which yields nothing and costs money to hold.
But Scott Carter from Lear Capital doesn’t agree. He told Barrons.com:
…the negative first-quarter GDP number can’t be blamed exclusively on bad weather. Without the Federal Reserve propping up the economy, we see second-quarter GDP growth well below current estimates of 3%…If the economy slows and earnings growth isn’t strong, gold will have a great run. I see prices rising. I still see gold prices at $1,450 at some point. The best message you can take from the data released over the last week is that economic numbers are mixed…The only positive news we’ve gotten is today’s jobs report. Still, full-time employment remains down. I am not seeing the positive economic news from independent sources that the economy is healthy.
Checking in on the metal’s ETFs and on related funds, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), the most actively traded gold ETF with more than 14 million shares changing hands, is falling by 0.3% to $26.40. The leveraged Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NUGT) fell 0.86% to $45.94 and Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares (DUST) rose 0.54% to $16.68. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) fell 0.05% to $20.29.