Investing Live: China's Hidden Gold Buying May Be 10x Official Data as De-dollarization Accelerates
Article by Eamonn Sheridan in Investing Live
Analysts believe China’s true gold purchases could be 10x higher than reported as Beijing quietly accelerates de-dollarization. Estimates based on trade data suggest up to 250 tons of buying this year, in a market already driven by surging central-bank demand and record prices.
While the People’s Bank of China disclosed only minimal volumes this year — 1.9 tons in July and August and 2.2 tons in June — few traders believe those numbers reflect the true scale of demand.
Societe Generale analysts, drawing on trade flows and customs data, estimate China could acquire as much as 250 tons of gold in 2025, representing more than a third of expected global central-bank buying.
The opacity around Chinese accumulation has made it increasingly difficult for traders to read the market, especially as central banks have become the dominant force behind bullion’s record rally above $4,300 per ounce.
Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, said China’s accumulation aligns with its long-running de-dollarization strategy but stressed there is ......