Money Morning: My Complete Silver Price Prediction for 2019
Article by Peter Krauth in Money Morning
Silver is a particular kind of precious metal. Unlike gold, nearly 60% of silver demand comes from industry. That's why I remain bullish in my silver price prediction for 2019.
Silver is crucial to electronics and the solar industry, and new applications are being discovered on an almost daily basis. Constant innovation is leading to new uses for silver like water purification and anti-bacterial application. And all of this has been happening as mine supply has been falling.
I think 2019 could be a stellar year for silver prices as a confluence of catalysts come together.
That could ignite a strong rally as the silver price remains very cheap on both a nominal and relative basis.
With climbing inflation, a potential surprise on the higher side could spark a flurry of buying in precious metals. And silver's extreme weakness relative to gold prices suggests a reversion to the mean is in the metal's future.
Let's start by looking at the likely drivers for silver prices in 2019, and then I'll follow on with my forecast for the new year.
These Catalysts Will Drive Silver Prices Higher in 2019
The gold-to-silver ratio is a great tool for comparing silver prices relative to gold prices over the long term.
We simply divide the gold price by the silver price, which tells us how many silver ounces are needed to buy one gold ounce. This ratio gets really interesting when it reaches extreme levels. And by all accounts, that's the case right now.
The last three times (2003, 2008, and 2016) that the gold-to-silver ratio approached 80, it quickly reversed.
Following the 2003 ratio decline, silver prices soared 61% over the next nine months. The 2008 ratio reversion boosted silver by a whopping 128% in just 11 months. And the 2016 ratio correction helped silver rally 28% in as little as four months.
Today the ratio stands at 85. That means silver is even cheaper relative to gold than at any time since 2003. It's at its highest level in 20 years. I expect we'll see a big reversion in the gold-to-silver ratio, likely down to around 65. And that's just one catalyst for silver prices in 2019.
Rising Inflation Will Have a Major Impact on Silver Prices in 2019
Another factor that's bullish for silver is rising inflation. Although it's been relatively tame, the rate has pushed above 2.5% twice since 2016 and has been trending higher generally, even as the Fed's been raising rates.
Rising prices are likely to continue to draw investors toward precious metals – and silver in particular, as it remains severely undervalued.
Here's How the Fed Could Move Silver Prices in 2019
In fact, precious metals tend to perform the best as we near the end of a rate-hiking cycle.
Despite decent odds for a few more rate hikes, the latest message being telegraphed by the Fed is it is nearing a neutral stance on rates.
That's more dovish than it had been just a couple of months ago.Because of this and other factors, some analysts (myself included) believe the U.S. dollar may have peaked and will face considerable headwinds next year.
A falling dollar tends to be good for silver, as it then takes more dollars to buy the same ounce, hence a rise in price. And while this is all happening, mines across the world are also producing less silver.
The Supply "Problem" May Only Get Bigger in 2019
Consider too that only one of every three silver ounces mined actually comes from a primary silver mine. The rest is by-product, nearly an afterthought, of the production of other metals.
Just 30% of silver comes from primary silver mines. Copper mining contributes 22% of silver output, while zinc and lead generate 34% of the silver mined annually. The producers of these other metals see silver as little more than a "bonus."
So even when silver prices rise dramatically, supply may simply not respond as those producers gain little benefit and are already limited by existing production capacities. And that could help fuel even higher prices as demand dramatically outpaces supply.
And the prices of those other metals – like copper, zinc, and lead – have struggled of late. When metals prices fall, mining executives become hesitant. They think of the effect on their bottom line as profits shrink. They may look to curb production or even chop expansion plans. And that inevitably contributes to fewer ounces of by-product silver.
And less silver supply helps support higher silver prices.
Now that I've shown you all the factors that will drive prices higher, here's my exact silver price prediction for 2019…
My Exact Silver Price Prediction for 2019, Including My New Target Price
So we have all the ingredients for a big rally in silver in 2019. Now let's look at just how high silver might go.
Despite a challenging year, silver looks like it may be finally breaking out, especially since its November low. That rise has been accompanied by plenty of upward momentum.
Given that silver has enjoyed a strong seasonal period from December into March for each of the last three years, I think we're going to see the same again in 2019. And that could easily pull silver up to the middle of its range during the first half of 2018. So I think silver could rally to $16.50 in Q1 of 2019.
By the second half of next year, with bullish fundamentals and technicals in place, I think silver could push higher still.
My target is for silver to reach for the $18.50 level, which is the 2017 high. But ultimately, given how undervalued silver is to gold through the lens of the gold-to-silver ratio, I think silver will go even higher than $18.50.
My target for gold is $1,400 in the second half of 2019. If a reversion to the mean for the gold-to-silver ratio heads back to 65, then that would imply a silver price of $21.50. That'd be a return of nearly 50% from December's prices.
With all the positive drivers for silver next year, I think this multipurpose metal could outperform gold and most other metals with ease.
To read this article in Money Morning in its entirety, click here.