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American Enterprise Institute: 2024: The Year America Has a Full-Blown Financial Crisis?

November 2, 2023
Financial Crisis, Banking Crisis

Article by Desmond Lachman 

A credit cycle is a normal process in a market economy. However, today’s U.S. credit cycle is anything but normal.

Not only was its easy phase fueled by the loosest monetary policy in the postwar period. Its tightening phase is being reinforced by a spike in long-term US Treasury bond yields and a crisis in the commercial real estate sector.

That combination now sets us up for a hard economic landing by the middle of next year.

Hyman Minsky, the late credit cycle expert, explained that easy monetary policy generally leads to complacency in the financial system and to irresponsible bank lending. When the music of easy money stops playing, we discover who has been swimming naked. That leads to a wave of defaults that .......

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