CNBC - THIS TIME IS NOT DIFFERENT: Billionaire Investor Warns Lazy Thinking is Taking Over Markets

June 13, 2019

Article by Thomas Franck in CNBC financial

Billionaire investor and Oaktree Capital Management Co-Chairman Howard Marks is worried to hear investors say “this time it’s different” or openly wonder if the historic bull market and economic success “can only get better forever.”

In a 12-page letter sent to Oaktree clients on Wednesday, Marks questioned nine financial theories he’s heard in recent meetings, including the notion that central banks policy can lead to evergreen market success and that economic recessions can be consistently delayed.

“Very soon, the current recovery is bound to become the longest in U.S. history,” he continued. “However, I believe the odds are that it’s closer to the end than the beginning. ... The recovery is likely to go on longer, but perhaps not much longer.”

Marks, known for his prescient investment calls, correctly warned about the 2008 financial crisis and the dot-com bubble implosion. Oaktree Capital had $119 billion of assets under management as of March. Marks has a net worth of $2.1 billion, according to Forbes.

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