Outside The Dollar
10-Year Treasury: Breaking Above 5%
Sep 18, 2026
Key Takeaways
- Five Economic Risks 00:51
- Treasury Yield Hits 5.04% 03:20
- Yields Draw Away Demand 03:20
- Two Clocks for Metals 05:26
- Mortgage Rate Sticker Shock 07:14
- Seller Lock-In Squeeze 07:14
- What Drives Treasury Yields 08:59
Outside The Dollar
10-Year Treasury: Breaking Above 5%
Sep 18, 2026
Outside The Dollar offers brief, 15-minute weekly updates on gold, silver, and the broader economic trends influencing the U.S. dollar and financial markets. Hosted by Elena Reyes of Lear Capital, the podcast provides straightforward insights designed to help listeners stay informed and protect their savings without all the noise. Information contained within Lear Capital's podcast is for general educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Lear Capital does not provide legal or tax advice, or retirement-specific recommendations.
Show Notes
The 10-year Treasury yield crossing 5.04% in September 2026 is the single number tying together this week's economic pressures, from mortgage rates to precious metals prices. Kathrynn explores how CBS News' five economic warning signs-oil prices, inflation, interest rates, federal debt, and AI valuation concerns-connect to rising bond yields, and why higher yields make gold and silver face short-term competition from interest-bearing assets even as long-term reasons to hold precious metals remain unchanged. Listeners holding or considering gold and silver will learn how mortgage rates above 7%, falling home sales, and Federal Reserve decisions all trace back to Treasury market dynamics. The episode references CNBC's September 15 reporting on Treasury yields and CBS News' economic risk assessment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the five economic warning signs CBS News identified?
CBS News named five economic risks: oil prices, inflation, interest rates, federal debt, and AI valuation concerns. Each affects ordinary people differently, from gas pumps and grocery bills to borrowing costs, interest payments, and retirement portfolios.
Why did the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.04%?
According to CNBC, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.04% on September 15 due to inflation, heavy government borrowing, and increased Treasury supply pressuring the bond market. This borrowing pressure is described as ongoing rather than a one-time event.
How do rising interest rates affect gold and silver prices?
Gold and silver faced pressure heading into the Fed's September decision because higher rates create competing returns, making non-yielding metals less attractive in the short term. However, short-term price swings are framed as separate from longer-term reasons for holding metals.
Why did mortgage rates rise above 7%?
According to Investopedia, 30-year mortgage rates reached 7.14%, driven by the same bond-market pressures affecting Treasury yields. This caused existing-home sales to fall 2% from July to August and added about $222 a month to payments on a median-priced $429,100 home compared to a 6.16% rate.
What is a Treasury note and why does its yield matter?
A Treasury note is essentially an IOU from the U.S. government. A 5% ten-year yield means investors demand that annual return to lend money for ten years. Yields climb due to inflation, oil prices above $100, federal debt above $40 trillion, and heavy Treasury issuance, and they affect mortgages, business and consumer borrowing, stock valuations, retirement accounts, and federal refinancing costs.
How does the 10-year Treasury yield influence mortgage rates?
The 10-year Treasury yield sets a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgages. As the yield rises due to factors like inflation and heavy government borrowing, mortgage rates follow, which is why 30-year mortgage rates climbed to 7.14% alongside the Treasury yield's rise to 5.04%.