Rising Yields, Falling Confidence

If you've been watching the headlines lately, you may have noticed something unusual happening in the markets: bond yields are rising while stocks are falling. That's not the norm. In fact, it's a red flag.

Traditionally, stocks and bonds have what's called an “inverse relationship.” When the stock market stumbles, investors typically rush to the safety of U.S. Treasuries, which drives bond prices up and yields down. But today, we're seeing the opposite: stocks are declining and yields are rising-a signal that deeper issues could be brewing in the economy.

What’s Causing Yields to Spike?

There are a few key factors behind the rise in yields:

• Sticky Inflation: Investors are realizing inflation might not be going away anytime soon, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer.
• Debt Supply Glut: The U.S. government is issuing record levels of new debt, and that oversupply is pushing yields up as buyers demand better returns.
• Stagflation Fears: A slowing economy coupled with inflation is one of the worst-case scenarios. It hurts both stocks and bonds.
• Foreign Buyers Backing Off: Countries like China and Japan are pulling back on their U.S. Treasury purchases, reducing demand just as issuance is ramping up.

Why Rising Yields Strain the National Debt

When yields rise, it costs more for the U.S. government to borrow. This is especially dangerous considering the size and structure of our national debt:

• As of 2025, the national debt is over $36 trillion.
• The average interest rate on that debt has climbed to 3.28%.
• Over 30% of U.S. debt matures within the next 12 months, which means it needs to be refinanced at today's higher rates.

Imagine having a credit card with a $36 trillion balance-and a big chunk of it needs to be rolled over at higher interest next year. That's the bind we're in. As more debt gets refinanced at elevated rates, the government's interest payments balloon, taking up a larger share of the federal budget.

In fact, the U.S. is already spending over $1 trillion per year just to service the interest on the debt. That's more than we spend on defense or Medicare and it's projected to get worse.

This is why so many experts and policymakers are hoping for lower interest rates, because they need to reduce the cost of rolling over this massive debt. If rates don't come down, the U.S. could face a fiscal spiral where interest payments consume more and more of the budget, crowding out other priorities.

Why Gold Shines in This Environment

Here's the bottom line:

As yields rise and confidence in U.S. fiscal discipline declines, many Americans are looking for real, tangible assets that don't rely on government promises. That's where gold comes in.

Gold isn't affected by rising yields, budget battles, or ballooning debt payments. It has stood the test of time through wars, depressions, and political transitions. In times of high inflation, government dysfunction, and global uncertainty, gold has historically held its value, or surged.

And let's not forget: central banks around the world have been buying gold at record levels since 2022. What do they know that the public doesn't?

Take Action

If you're concerned about rising debt costs, dollar weakness, or the future of your savings, consider adding physical gold to your portfolio.

Call Lear Capital today at 855-271-2873 to learn more about how gold can help you safeguard your wealth in uncertain times.

Remember, the best time to buy gold is before the crisis, not after.