Is the U.S. Already in a Recession? The Warning Signs Are Mounting
A Nation on Uneven Ground
A new report from Moody's Analytics paints a troubling picture of the U.S. economy, suggesting that nearly one-third of American economic activity is already in recession or at high risk of contraction. Another third is stagnating, leaving only a portion of the country's economy still expanding. The unevenness is striking: while some states remain relatively resilient thanks to their sheer economic scale, regions such as the District of Columbia, Virginia, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Georgia are facing some of the steepest risks. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi estimates that the probability of a national recession has climbed to almost fifty percent, a warning sign that investors cannot afford to ignore.
The Lingering Shadow of a Credit Downgrade
This fresh recession alarm comes only months after Moody's dealt another blow to U.S. financial credibility: the downgrade of America's sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. The move was driven by the government's soaring debt burden and worsening fiscal instability. As we wrote in our earlier analysis of the downgrade, the decision sparked a rise in Treasury yields, with 30-year bonds climbing above five percent and the 10-year pushing toward four and a half. Higher borrowing costs ripple through the entire financial system, from mortgage rates to consumer credit, squeezing households and adding more strain to an already fragile economy.
A Perfect Storm for Households and Markets
Taken together, these developments highlight the growing risks tied to America's fiscal trajectory and economic outlook. A downgraded credit profile erodes global confidence in U.S. debt markets, while a looming or partial recession exposes just how fragile and uneven the nation's growth really is. For everyday Americans, this translates into higher living costs, reduced purchasing power, and a financial environment where traditional investments may no longer provide the same level of security they once did.
Why Gold Matters in Times Like These
Gold has historically provided a haven during moments of economic instability. When the government's balance sheet comes into question and the dollar weakens under the weight of debt and inflation, gold stands apart as a store of value that cannot be printed or devalued by policy decisions. During the 1970s, a decade marked by stagflation, gold surged as investors fled paper assets for something tangible. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, gold and silver once again proved their resilience, helping to preserve wealth while the broader financial system struggled to recover.
Preparing for What's Ahead
Today's environment shares many of the same warning signs we have seen before. Rising debt, slowing growth, higher borrowing costs, and a weakened credit profile all point to an economy under stress. That is why many investors are turning once again to gold and silver, not simply as a hedge, but as a way to help protect their purchasing power and hedge gainst forces that undermine the dollar's strength.
These warnings from Moody's should not be taken lightly. They are signals that the financial foundation of the country is shifting, and prudent investors could do well to prepare. Adding physical gold and silver could offer a measure of security that financial markets alone may not be able to provide. In times of uncertainty, tangible assets have always been a cornerstone of wealth preservation, and today is no exception.
Want to help protect your purchasing power? Call 855-271-2873 to speak with a Lear Capital specialist and learn how gold and silver can help you stay ahead of the curve.