Analysts Project Gold Prices Between $4,500-$5,000 in 2026

In the second half of 2025, a growing list of major banks began publishing gold forecasts that cluster in a narrow band: roughly $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with some analysts sketching upside scenarios even higher. These calls are coming from mainstream institutions such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and HSBC, and they are all reacting to the same underlying themes: central-bank buying, fiscal pressure on monetary policy, and a weaker U.S. dollar backdrop. 

This article summarizes what those analysts are actually projecting, why they see room for higher prices, and how those considering a precious-metals IRA might interpret the forecasts without treating them as guarantees.  

Major Bank Forecasts for Gold Prices in 2026

A Reuters poll of 39 analysts and traders found a 2026 average price of $4,275 per ounce. 

Major banks now see gold between $4,400 and $5,300 per ounce in 2026, driven by demand for hard assets amid geopolitical shocks, easier monetary policy, and strong central-bank buying. 

These banks include:

JPMorgan

• JPMorgan's commodities team projects that gold could average about $5,055 per ounce in Q4 2026.
  
• The bank ties that target to robust investor and central-bank demand-projecting roughly 566 tonnes per quarter in 2026-alongside a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle and persistent concerns about inflation, fiscal deficits, and U.S. dollar debasement.

Morgan Stanley

• Morgan Stanley Research has raised its 2026 gold forecast to around $4,400 per ounce, up sharply from earlier estimates of around $3,300.
  
• The forecast included a caveat about short-term volatility and the risk of pullbacks after the 2025 rally.

Goldman Sachs

• In its late-October 2025 update, Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold price target to $4,900 per ounce, up from its previous $4,300 estimate. The bank attributes the revision to persistent central-bank buying-projected at roughly 80 metric tons per month in 2025 and about 70 tons per month in 2026-along with steady inflows into Western gold-backed ETFs and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.
  
• Goldman notes that while macro risks could still create upside volatility, the new $4,900 target now reflects its baseline outlook rather than a stress-case scenario. In a more stressed scenario focused on threats to Federal Reserve independence and fiscal slippage, Goldman analysts have argued that gold could climb as high as $5,000 per ounce, as investors hedge against higher inflation, weaker dollar confidence, and turbulence in stocks and bonds.

Bank of America

• Bank of America Global Research recently became one of the first major banks to lift its 2026 outlook to $5,000 per ounce, with an average annual price near $4,400.
  
• The bank's note stresses that a roughly 10-15% increase in investment demand, similar to recent trends, could be enough to drive prices into that range, while also cautioning that short-term corrections are possible.

HSBC

• HSBC forecasts that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by the first half of 2026, with a 2026 average around $4,600, citing geopolitical tensions, central-bank purchases, ETF inflows, and interest-rate cuts.
  

Taken together, the institutional consensus now clusters around mid-$4,000s averages and peak scenarios approaching or slightly above $5,000 per ounce in 2026. The numbers differ by bank, but the message is consistent: in their view, the macro backdrop supports higher gold over a multi-year horizon.

Why Do Analysts See Room for $4,500-$5,000 Gold?

Central-Bank Accumulation

Central-bank behavior is one of the most important pillars behind these forecasts. The World Gold Council's 2025 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey reports that:

• 95% of responding central banks expect global official gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months.
• A record 43% say they plan to increase their own gold holdings.

The same survey notes that central banks have bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold per year over the last three years, roughly double the 400-500-tonne annual pace seen in the prior decade. 

Fed Policy, Real Yields, and a Softer Dollar

Another common thread is the expectation of easier monetary policy and lower real yields:

• Gold's 2025 breakout coincided with the Federal Reserve's shift into a rate-cutting cycle. Historically, lower real yields and a weaker dollar have correlated with stronger gold prices.
• The 2024-2025 surge in gold prices has been linked to economic uncertainty, Fed rate-cut expectations, and dollar weakness, which all tend to boost demand for non-yielding safe-haven assets.

If those conditions persist into 2026-moderate inflation, ongoing rate cuts, and pressure on the dollar-analysts argue that the environment is still supportive of higher gold, even from today's elevated levels.

Fiscal Pressure and Concerns Around Central-Bank Independence

Some of the most aggressive targets, including Goldman's $5,000 scenario, hinge on what happens if political interference weakens the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve. These targets are based on the idea that erosion of central-bank autonomy could push inflation higher, undermine confidence in the dollar, hurt stock and bond valuations, and drive investors toward gold. 

This is a tail-risk scenario, not a base case, but it helps explain why a number of institutions are now comfortable talking openly about $5,000 gold as something more than a fringe idea.

De-Dollarization and Reserve Diversification

Finally, the same World Gold Council survey that tracks central-bank buying also shows a systematic shift away from the U.S. dollar:

• 76% of central banks expect gold to make up a moderately or significantly higher share of reserves over the next five years.
• Roughly three-quarters expect the dollar's share of reserves to decline over that period.

What These Forecasts Do Not Guarantee

These forecasts do not necessarily claim that gold will rise in a straight line. Gold has already had a dramatic move.

Several banks-Morgan Stanley among them-explicitly caution that near-term price action can be "overbought," and that corrections are healthy.

The key point is that these are conditional forecasts built on macro assumptions. If real yields move higher instead of lower, if the dollar strengthens, or if central-bank buying slows, the actual price path could change.

What This Means for Gold IRAs

For long-term savers, the most useful takeaway from this cluster of forecasts is not a specific price target. Rather, it is the signal that many large institutions view gold as a meaningful strategic asset in a world of higher debt loads, fiscal strain, and persistent geopolitical risk. That framing matters for those thinking about how precious metals belong in a retirement portfolio.

Within an IRA, the focus is structural, not speculative. IRS rules limit holdings to IRA-approved gold and silver, which must meet minimum purity standards, in most cases 99% purity, and be stored by an authorized custodian. Approved bullion coins-such as American Gold Eagles, American Gold Buffalos, and American Silver Eagles-fit these requirements, while collectibles, graded coins, and jewelry do not. Staying within these guidelines is essential because non-approved metals can trigger taxes and penalties, and simply buying any kind of gold does not necessarily give the buyer optimal exposure to long-term positions on price increases.

The forecasts may influence how investors think about allocation, but they don't change the fundamentals of using a precious-metals IRA. Gold and silver remain non-yielding assets whose purpose in a retirement portfolio is typically to provide diversification rather than to serve as a short-term trade. Whether or not 2026 brings $4,500 or $5,000 gold, the long-term rationale for holding IRA-eligible precious metals rests on risk management, time horizon, and disciplined use of the IRA structure, not on any single price target.