Gold Price Forecasts for 2026 and Beyond: What Major Banks and Analysts Expect

Gold entered 2026 at levels few institutions believed possible just two years earlier. An extraordinary 2025 rally driven by aggressive central-bank buying, persistent geopolitical tension, and expectations of monetary easing pushed prices to all-time highs above $4,300 per ounce and forced banks to rewrite their outlooks. 

This article consolidates the most authoritative projections from major banks and respected analysts, along with the relevant forward-looking forecasts from earlier institutional research, so you can track how projections have changed over time.

Current Gold Price (Live):

The chart below shows real-time gold spot prices tracked by Lear Capital and updated throughout the trading day.

Major Bank and Analyst Gold Forecasts

How Forecasts Have Shifted Since 2024-2025

Before gold accelerated far beyond expectations, several institutions issued more conservative targets. Some of these remain useful as reference points that illustrate how sharply sentiment has changed.

Earlier Institutional Projections 

These earlier forecasts now read like the first chapter in a much larger price repricing. By the end of 2025, gold had sailed past $4,000, prompting an industry-wide reset of forward expectations.

Institutional Profiles

Bank of America: 

Bank of America’s forecast calls for gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with an average annual price closer to $4,400. Analysts cite large U.S. fiscal deficits, expectations of a softer dollar, and robust central-bank accumulation as the principal drivers.

J.P. Morgan: 

JPMorgan continues to identify gold as its "highest-conviction long" heading into the Fed's easing cycle. The bank expects gold to average $5,055 in late 2026, with a long-term target of $6,000 by 2028, driven by anticipated real-rate compression and global diversification away from the U.S. dollar.

Deutsche Bank: 

Deutsche Bank recently lifted its 2026 gold outlook to $4,450, reflecting stronger-than-expected safe-haven demand and persistent macro uncertainty. The bank also outlined a bull-case scenario approaching $4,950, tied to continued central-bank buying and a deeper easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. 

Goldman Sachs: 

Goldman Sachs upgraded its forecast to approximately $4,900 following stronger-than-expected central-bank purchases and persistent inflation expectations.

Morgan Stanley: 

Morgan Stanley sees gold reaching $4,500 by mid-2026, supported by ETF inflows and strong physical demand from emerging-market central banks.

Key Themes Behind 2026 Forecasts

Interest-Rate Outlook

Most bullish forecasts assume meaningful easing from the Federal Reserve, leading to lower real interest rates, which is historically one of gold's strongest tailwinds.

Fiscal and Currency Trends

Large fiscal deficits and questions about long-term U.S. debt sustainability continue to drive arguments for higher gold prices. Banks expect sustained pressure on the dollar through 2026.

Central-Bank Demand

Record central-bank buying in 2024-2025 set a new structural floor under prices. Institutions see this trend continuing, especially across emerging markets.

Geopolitical Risk Premium

War in Europe, Middle East tensions, and broader global fragmentation add an ongoing risk premium supporting both spot prices and long-range forecasts.

The Takeaway

While projections vary widely, most major institutions agree that gold is likely to remain elevated through 2026. The most influential forecasts cluster between $4,400 and $5,500, with a few long-term projections stretching toward $6,000.

For investors, three broad themes stand out:

• Gold is widely treated as a multi-year hedge, not just a short-term trade.
  
• Silver may see more volatility, but its industrial demand profile adds an additional driver absent in gold.
  
• Forecast dispersion is unusually wide, which underlines the importance of monitoring macro developments rather than relying on any single price target.

FAQ: Gold Forecasts for 2026

Is gold going to $5,000?

Several major banks-including Bank of America, Societe Generale, and JPMorgan-forecast gold at or above $5,000 in 2026. Not every institution agrees, but the upper-range consensus has shifted sharply higher.

Who has the highest gold price forecast?

JPMorgan currently holds the most aggressive long-term target with $6,000 by 2028, while Bank of America leads the 2026 forecasts at $5,000.

Will gold correct before moving higher?

Banks including Citi and Capital Economics believe gold could retrace into the mid-$3,000s before stabilizing or rising again. However, most long-term forecasts still point upward.

Why are banks bullish on gold?

Key drivers include expectations of lower interest rates, sustained central-bank buying, supply-demand imbalances, elevated geopolitical risk, and weakening U.S. dollar conditions.