Forbes: Gold's Rally Was No Surprise - And It's Not Done
Article by Bob Haber in Forbes
I've been writing about this setup for years, and the script hasn't changed—only the stakes have grown bolder.
The Fed is boxed in by stubborn inflation, a slowing rhythm in growth, and political crosscurrents that tilt relentlessly toward easing, even as the scoreboard still flashes above-target CPI.
Markets see it too: rate-cut odds have surged as each soft labor print lands, and every tough-sounding Powell line gets repriced the moment the data wobble. When policy blinks before inflation truly breaks, gold doesn't just hold its ground —it runs.
In my recent piece “QB Powell In The Pocket – Too Late Or Just Lost?” I focused on the drama that will come with the end of Jerome Powell's time as Fed Chair. He's being pressured from all angles—fiscal dominance, tariffs, politics—while still staring at inflation above target. If weak labor data persist, he'll cut. Markets have effectively pre-announced it, with odds for a September move surging from sub-40% after his last presser to north of 90% after softer prints.
As I’ve argued repeatedly (see “Gold Can’t Be Downgraded And It’s No One’s Liability” – Forbes, August 20, 2023; and “When The Gold Dust Settled” – Forbes, January 12, 2023), these are precisely the conditions that light a fire under gold. The macro hasn't changed: chronic fiscal deficits, an eventual glide lower in real rates if nominal cuts meet sticky inflation, and incentives to keep liquidity flowing.
What’s different now is how broad and durable the sponsorship has become. The quiet force behind gold's multi‑year basing and breakout has been central banks—not as a trade, but as a .....