You have heard of Hubbert's peak - how should we name peak gold?
Mr. Martin Mittelstaedt of The Globe and Mail in Toronto, Ontario wrote a very interesting article on April 13th entitled You've heard of peak oil. How about peak gold?
Here’s a couple excerpts from his excellent article: “Many precious metals analysts and gold miners are taking a cue from the claims that global oil production will exhibit a peak, and then begin an inexorable decline accompanied by sharply higher prices. They're starting to say the same concept applies equally well to bullion and may lead to outsized investment returns from buying the yellow metal.
Believers in peak gold say that mining has a number of uncanny similarities to oil extraction.
Just like the slow output declines and dwindling reserves observed at aging oil fields, many of the best gold deposits are exhibiting the same sort of geriatric tendencies, with their highest grades extracted long ago.
Another resemblance is that in both industries, the pace of new elephant-sized discoveries has decreased, despite rapidly expanded exploration budgets and the spur of sharply higher prices, which in gold's case have risen about 350 per cent since the metal's bull run began in March, 2001, when prices were under $260 (U.S.) an ounce.
While the jury is still out on whether oil production has reached its ultimate high point, world gold output reached its record level in 2001, and has generally fallen since then.”
AND:
“Of the 62 major discoveries made from 1997 to 2008, almost half were found in the first three years - from 1997 to 1999.
"There used to be discoveries of four or five a year. Now, there are maybe one, two max a year," says John Ing, a mining analyst at Maison Placements Canada Inc. who is another believer in peak gold.
Those contending peak gold has already arrived also point to the sharp fall in output among many of the major producing countries. South Africa, long the top global producer, peaked back around 1970, and has been falling ever since. In more recent years, production has generally been declining in Canada, the U.S., Australia and Russia.”
Here’s the link:
I agree with Martin. As I have invested in this market for now over nine years, he is correct in identifying peak gold. Gold demand is higher and a gold shortage may soon be upon us. Gold price predictions from analysts that I follow and trust point to a much higher price! Buy gold!